Jonathan Davenport, Market Analysis Lead for Milner, gave a well received presentation at the 34th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) in Rotterdam based on Milner’s white paper, ‘Forecasting the Future for Profit’. Jonathan was invited to present alongside former Netherlands Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende and representatives from Orange and Kiel Institute for the World Economy, as well as many others.
Jonathan’s presentation was based on how market forecast models can be used to understand market dynamics better and how their application can allow firms to create a strategy to outperform their competitors. Jonathan used the example of Blockbuster (the DVD rental company), and argued that if they had forecast the market better, they would have been able to acknowledge the changing competitive landscape, and avoid having to announce bankruptcy in 2010.
He also went on to discuss the Innovator’s Dilemma – the trade-off between today’s revenues and profits and addressing tomorrow’s market – and looked at the Diffusion of Innovation theory and its uses in forecasting. It was shown how Blockbuster could have anticipated the rise of DVD Mail Order and Streaming through scenario planning – a useful tool in market forecasting whereby you explore the market’s possible futures and decide which of these is most likely to happen.
Jonathan demonstrated how the forecast is built through modelling data at a granular level, predicting consumer and competitor behaviour across different price points, geographies, products and so on. Through a market forecast model, companies create a single, streamlined picture of market behaviour which is used to develop a market winning strategy and support company-wide strategic alignment, with all departments working toward one goal. This helps the business invest in the right markets, targeting the right segments at the right time, which is crucial for companies who are looking to maximise profit.< Back